Thanks for this. In my case my employer (a private uni) was able to offer… 12.5% of my usual salary for paternity leave. Thankfully I didn’t have to rely on that, but if that’s what they’re offering, is it any wonder more men don’t take paternity leave? This is an n of 1 mind you.
Ouch, that IS stingy! Sorry to hear they weren't offering more. I thought basic paternity leave percentages were set by law in Japan - is that not right then?
Great article- the last part sums up something even some of my far right leading ‘friends’ agree with- we need to transition to a less consumerist and convenience led society which will not need to keep growing its population, ( and then would not need foreigners to supplement the workforce! :)..
Thanks for reading - and I think you've hit on Japan's big challenge here. If the future vision is to be smaller but more productive, the first part looks like it's going to take care of itself (!) but then how to make the second part happen? It's interesting to hear some of Japan's political parties talking about returning Japan to a world-leading position in tech and maybe even AI. Perhaps that might move the dial at last...
Excellent explanation! Thank you. There are also elements that are less commented on but which should not be overlooked with regard to the birth rate. For example, medical institutions pay less attention to pain, and epidural analgesia 硬膜外鎮痛 is rare. Many places only provide pain relief 和痛分娩. I have friends who only have one child because they found the experience of giving birth too painful the first time around...
Additionally, there is the highly paternalistic institutional framework that grants husbands a say in matters concerning only the woman and the baby's safety, such as C-sections. This is not an issue from the distant past; I gave my consent just a few years ago. Furthermore, epidurals and C-sections are more or less taboo, which discourages change.
Those are just two examples. That said, I live in Kyoto, and it seems that the situation varies across the country.
Thank you so much for this. A great point, which I hadn't thought about before in the context of Japan's population decline. My wife would agree, I think: two of our children were born in Japan and it was clear that epidurals were for rare, special cases only.
I agree with the conclusion. It might be just fine to shrink instead of desperately try to constantly grow the population.
However I believe we should start the conversation about developing nuclear weapons as a deterrence. This is absolutely essential as the russian aggression showed that the US security guarantees are worthless.
Thanks for your comment. I agree and I suspect that 2026 will see that nuclear conversation starting to happen more openly in Japan. I have no special insider knowledge about it (!) but that would be my guess. I think we can expect groups in Japan committed to no nukes (linked to Hiroshima, eg) to be more vocal about their opposition too.
I doubt a population decline can become irreversible unless there’s a catastrophic environmental change, but a permanently smaller population of more productive workers could be a good thing, as you suggest. ZPG was advocating for that 50 years ago and may have been right. I still remember biologist Clement Markert’s definition of the optimal human population density as “When you see another person, you’re glad.”
There are two twentieth century baby booms. Those born in the first are about 75 and those from the second 50; it looks like an hourglass. After that the predictions seem to indicate a column. At the 2070 point things return to a pre-war number but in a wholly different society. Nobody knows what that will look like. The changes between the first and second booms will be interesting however. The second might be fitter and healthier by the time they are 75 given Gen X's tendency to obsess about these things. They will also be the beneficiaries of improvements in pharmacology and technology; self-driving cars, anti-dementia drugs etc. Arguably the costs incurred by the first wave will lessen with the second. Interesting times!
Interesting times indeed, and thank you for this very helpful explanation - a useful reminder that what Japan is facing is part of a larger global trend, in so many ways.
Thanks for this. In my case my employer (a private uni) was able to offer… 12.5% of my usual salary for paternity leave. Thankfully I didn’t have to rely on that, but if that’s what they’re offering, is it any wonder more men don’t take paternity leave? This is an n of 1 mind you.
Ouch, that IS stingy! Sorry to hear they weren't offering more. I thought basic paternity leave percentages were set by law in Japan - is that not right then?
I thought the same thing… In my case that was not the case!
Great article- the last part sums up something even some of my far right leading ‘friends’ agree with- we need to transition to a less consumerist and convenience led society which will not need to keep growing its population, ( and then would not need foreigners to supplement the workforce! :)..
Thanks for reading - and I think you've hit on Japan's big challenge here. If the future vision is to be smaller but more productive, the first part looks like it's going to take care of itself (!) but then how to make the second part happen? It's interesting to hear some of Japan's political parties talking about returning Japan to a world-leading position in tech and maybe even AI. Perhaps that might move the dial at last...
Excellent explanation! Thank you. There are also elements that are less commented on but which should not be overlooked with regard to the birth rate. For example, medical institutions pay less attention to pain, and epidural analgesia 硬膜外鎮痛 is rare. Many places only provide pain relief 和痛分娩. I have friends who only have one child because they found the experience of giving birth too painful the first time around...
Additionally, there is the highly paternalistic institutional framework that grants husbands a say in matters concerning only the woman and the baby's safety, such as C-sections. This is not an issue from the distant past; I gave my consent just a few years ago. Furthermore, epidurals and C-sections are more or less taboo, which discourages change.
Those are just two examples. That said, I live in Kyoto, and it seems that the situation varies across the country.
Thank you so much for this. A great point, which I hadn't thought about before in the context of Japan's population decline. My wife would agree, I think: two of our children were born in Japan and it was clear that epidurals were for rare, special cases only.
I agree with the conclusion. It might be just fine to shrink instead of desperately try to constantly grow the population.
However I believe we should start the conversation about developing nuclear weapons as a deterrence. This is absolutely essential as the russian aggression showed that the US security guarantees are worthless.
Thanks for your comment. I agree and I suspect that 2026 will see that nuclear conversation starting to happen more openly in Japan. I have no special insider knowledge about it (!) but that would be my guess. I think we can expect groups in Japan committed to no nukes (linked to Hiroshima, eg) to be more vocal about their opposition too.
I doubt a population decline can become irreversible unless there’s a catastrophic environmental change, but a permanently smaller population of more productive workers could be a good thing, as you suggest. ZPG was advocating for that 50 years ago and may have been right. I still remember biologist Clement Markert’s definition of the optimal human population density as “When you see another person, you’re glad.”
Thankyou - and what a lovely definition of optimal population density!
Thanks for this, Chris. This is the most thorough essay I've ever read about both the causes of rapid population decline and possible solutions.
There are two twentieth century baby booms. Those born in the first are about 75 and those from the second 50; it looks like an hourglass. After that the predictions seem to indicate a column. At the 2070 point things return to a pre-war number but in a wholly different society. Nobody knows what that will look like. The changes between the first and second booms will be interesting however. The second might be fitter and healthier by the time they are 75 given Gen X's tendency to obsess about these things. They will also be the beneficiaries of improvements in pharmacology and technology; self-driving cars, anti-dementia drugs etc. Arguably the costs incurred by the first wave will lessen with the second. Interesting times!
Interesting times indeed, and thank you for this very helpful explanation - a useful reminder that what Japan is facing is part of a larger global trend, in so many ways.
Theres some medical reasons too like the clot shot, GMO soy and microplastics
You danced around the most obvious reason and I wonder why?