Taiwan 2026

A Year of Peril - And Why It Matters For Japan

This weekend, the United States marks the 84th anniversary of Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, back on 7th December 1941. The main ceremony will be live-streamed from Hawaii.

The theme this year is ‘Building Pathways to Peace,’ but 2026 looks like being a deeply uncertain time in East Asia. Without doubt, the problem giving diplomats and strategists the most sleepless nights will be Taiwan, which has resurfaced as an issue between China and Japan over the past few weeks.

The new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, was asked at a parliamentary meeting what would constitute a ‘survival-threatening situation’ for Japan when it comes to the tensions swirling around China’s desire to take Taiwan – or, as the Chinese government sees it, bring a renegade province to heel.

The rule in these situations is simple: don’t speculate.

Japan’s stance mirrors that of the US: acknowledging China’s position on Taiwan without explicitly recognising it, and maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity about what they might do in the event of a Chinese attempt to take the island by force.

Takaichi, who is widely-regarded as a China hawk, went ahead and speculated.

‘If there are battleships and the use of force,’ she said, ‘no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation.’

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Satellite imagery showing a Chinese Hainan amphibious assault ship in the Philippine Sea

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The response from China has been harsh. Imports of Japanese seafood have been banned and Chinese tourists have been advised not to visit Japan. China is Japan’s largest market for seafood and its biggest source of tourists.

Japanese soft power in China has been dealt a blow, too. Music concerts by top stars have been cancelled. One was shut down while Maki Otsuki, famous for her One Piece theme song, was singing. The lights were turned off, the music stopped and she was escorted off stage. Film releases have been delayed or cancelled - although Demon Slayer appears too big a cinematic beast for the Chinese to kill.

I recently argued in pieces for the Sunday Times and UnHerd that although China’s leaders are well aware of Takaichi’s views on Taiwan, her airing of them out loud as prime minister risks boosting morale amongst Taiwan’s pro-independence population. This hurts Chinese efforts to undermine them by wooing local politicians and buying up media influence.

The crisis has been met by a remarkable show of solidarity from Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, and the Taiwanese people. Lai posted an image of himself to social media, enjoying a plate of Japanese seafood and urging people to start eating more. This they are doing, alongside booking holidays to Japan.

So why are Japan and Taiwan so close, despite Taiwan being a Japanese colony for fifty years (1895 - 1945)? And what are the prospects for a Taiwan crisis in 2026?